Someone Past the Post

What a bloody farce the UK elections are proving to be!

In principal, the system is "first past the post" (the party that gets the most votes) who wins, but in practice the "third past the post" is going to determine who wins... well, probably the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth, collectively keeping out the first (or highest polling) past the post. In other words, the "first past the post" system really means "someone-past-the-post-and-possibly-nearly-everyone-except-first-past-the-post".

It gets more complicated than that too: the first- past-the-post (right-wing Conservatives) & third-past-the-post (left-wing Liberal Democrats) could form a coalition, and give the UK public a secure government for the next two years - the coalition was only planned for two years, despite the government having a potential five year term. (Yes, confusing!) But, the third-past-the-post-Liberals want a commitment to a new voting system (a proportional voting system that goes by the name of the Alternative Vote - not a great system, and not even the system preferred by the third-past-the-post-Liberals), while the first-past-the-post-Conservatives are only agreeing to a referendum (a vote by the UK public) on a new system... and to confuse things more, with the first-past-the-post-Conservatives likely campaigning against it!

With things as they stand, these discussions look like they're going nowhere - the most important thing to the UK public (and the global economy) at the moment isn't really about how the UK select its government, but about a stable government. But as the most important thing to the third-past-the-post-Liberals is the Alternative Vote system, this coalition looks like it won't be achievable.

From there, the third-past-the-post-Liberals can instead secure a deal with the second-past-the-post-Labour (together with the other small parties) - first-past-the-post-Conservatives would then lose the election, and remain the official opposition.

This "rainbow" coalition (all the parties bring their colors to the table, and we have a jumbled messy rainbow of parties propping up the government) would have so many to keep happy, it wouldn't be secure. It may quickly change the voting system, but not necessarily a good thing as a priority.

To make matters more confusing, the third-past-the-post-Liberals would be negotiating with a second-past-the-post-Labour party, currently led by The Clown. However, Gordon is stepping down as the leader, so whoever takes over in September would be free to tear up the agreement with the third-past-the-post-Liberals, forcing a second general election in October (as predicted by Hippie on Friday morning).

Another twist to throw in the mix is the fact that no party would genuinely want to be responsible for forcing a second election this year - the economy wouldn't like that. Easy enough to manage, if a deal can be secured - but between who?

News on Thursday night gave them all the excuse they needed for that: no party will be forcing a second election, the responsibility for this will lie with the Returning Officers (these are the people that manage the vote in every part of the country). The UK's own "hanging chads of Florida" farce meant votes weren't counted, simply because voters couldn't get into the voting station, or once there, couldn't get a voting paper. Ergo, the voting result doesn't actually reflect what the population wanted.

The Likely Outcome of This?

Well, there could be a minority government by the first-past-the-post-Conservatives, but this would be tentative, as they would often be defeated.

Equally, there could be a majority "rainbow" coalition government of anyone that isn't the first-past-the-post-Conservatives, and this would be led by... well, even Hippie can't predict that one, but perhaps Miliband will be successful. Of course, the "rainbow" wouldn't have chosen this Prime Minister, and that could (did Hippie type "could" - should be "would") be enough to cause the collapse of this "government".

Only one thing for sure: unlike Florida, the UK public are going back to the ballot box - in October 2010. Not sure what voting system it will be held under, but probably the current someone-past-the-post-and-possibly-nearly-everyone-except-first-past-the-post system wins unless someone-past-the-post-and-possibly-nearly-everyone-except-first-past-the-post has less seats (324 or fewer) than the current first-past-the-post Conservatives get 326 seats in a new election.

And Who to Support?

If the broke & remote people in a northern place stop spewing out ash, and airline staff are working, the people to support are shareholders of the airlines - get the fuck out of the bloody place!